Along with the recent increase in sports gambling, Polymarket has emerged as a dominant force in prediction markets. The platform has expanded traditional sports gambling by offering a wider range of markets, relying on cryptocurrency and using a nontraditional system where users bet against each other rather than the house. However, as its popularity grows, so do concerns about transparency and conflicts of interest.
Founded by Shane Coplan in 2020, Polymarket is the world’s largest prediction market. The American cryptocurrency-based platform allows users to bet on and profit from future events, including political outcomes, legislative decisions and sports games.
Participants can buy and sell any number of shares that represent the outcome of a specific event. Each share is priced between 0 and 1 USDC, a stablecoin pegged to the U.S. dollar at a 1:1 ratio. Pricing reflects the probability of the event. After the event is resolved, each correct share is worth $1. For example, if “yes” shares on whether the Washington Wizards will win the 2025 NBA Finals cost $0.10 each, the market implies a 10 percent chance of victory. If the Wizards win, buyers receive $1 per share, earning a $0.90 profit per share.
Polymarket gained national recognition during the 2024 presidential election, when its prediction market correctly forecasted Donald Trump’s victory despite many public polls suggesting otherwise. The platform was named to The New York Times list of the top 100 most influential companies of 2025, and its user base continues to grow even as other online betting platforms decline.
Polymarket has transformed sports gambling through its user-driven approach and its use of cryptocurrency. Unlike traditional sportsbooks, Polymarket allows users to trade shares against one another, so prices fluctuate based on participant behavior rather than a bookmaker’s fixed odds. As new information emerges, such as injuries, suspensions or trades, users can buy or sell shares, which changes the odds in real time.
The platform also appeals to a broader audience because it offers more diverse markets. In addition to single-game bets, users can bet on season-long outcomes such as the Super Bowl or the World Series. Polymarket charges no trading fee, which lowers the cost of entry compared to many competitors.
All transactions use USDC, which offers more stability than other cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. Transactions and market resolutions are decentralized through smart contracts, adding a layer of security. Despite these advantages, Polymarket faces growing scrutiny over how it determines market outcomes. The company ultimately decides how each market is resolved, even when millions of dollars are at stake.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has revealed that Polymarket employees often act as liquidity providers, entering markets to ensure activity. Critics argue this gives employees the power to influence pricing, participation that would not be permitted in regulated markets. The platform also faces more familiar risks, such as insider trading and market manipulation. Some users may buy or sell large volumes of shares to create the appearance of heightened activity. In addition, Polymarket’s political connections have raised questions about potential conflicts of interest in politically focused markets.
Polymarket has faced legal obstacles in the United States. Following a CFTC settlement, the company was initially banned from operating in the country and shut down its US markets. Investigations by the CFTC and the Justice Department were later dropped without charges, and the platform was granted permission to reenter the U.S. market.
After acquiring QCX LLC, a CFTC-licensed derivatives exchange, Polymarket can now self-certify event contracts for US users. This puts the company in a stronger position to compete with other prediction market platforms and traditional sportsbooks.
