As the NFL season approaches, fantasy managers are gearing up to draft their teams for the upcoming year. While household names like Justin Jefferson and Bijan Robinson top draft boards, managers must grapple with whether to stick with high-floor veterans or risk taking low-floor, high-ceiling rookies. Without NFL statistics to inform their draft position, managers must instead look towards college statistics, playtime reports coming out of training camp and their perceived talent. However, within Sidwell and the broader NFL audience, some fantasy football managers believe that these evaluation methods lead to rookies being overvalued during the draft.
“When NFL training camp and preseason roll around, rookies quickly become the center of attention,” junior Johnny Klug said. “This causes managers to usually think of the best-case scenario instead of what is likely to happen for rookies.”
Still, there are instances where rookies exceed expectations.
Ahead of the 2024-2025 season, six quarterbacks were selected in the top 12 picks of the NFL draft: Jayden Daniels, Drake Maye, J.J. McCarthy, Bo Nix, Michael Penix Jr. and Caleb Williams. Mike Clay, an analyst at ESPN, ranked Daniels highest among the rookie quarterbacks as the No. 12 fantasy football quarterback before the season started.
Behind Daniels, Clay ranked Williams at No. 16, Nix at No. 27, Maye at No. 30 and Penix Jr. at No. 36, while McCarthy went unranked due to a knee injury that kept him from playing all season.
Both Daniels and Nix ended up surpassing their preseason projections, as they finished with the fifth and seventh most Fantasy points, respectively, of all NFL quarterbacks.
On the other hand, Penix Jr. finished 47th among quarterbacks in fantasy points, largely due to limited playing time before Week 16. Williams and Maye performed close to expectations, finishing as QB No. 16 and No. 23, respectively. The wide variation in rookie quarterback performances highlights the risk fantasy managers face when drafting first-year players. For example, Daniels totaled 355 fantasy points, compared with Penix Jr.’s 44.
This season, there were six skill position players (quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers and tight ends) selected in the first 15 picks of the NFL draft: Wide Receiver and Cornerback Travis Hunter, Running Back Ashton Jeanty, Tight End Colston Loveland, Wide Reciever Tetairoa McMillan, Quarterback Cam Ward and Tight End Tyler Warren.
Jeanty is ranked as the top rookie in most preseason Fantasy Football rankings due to his performance at Boise State University last year, where he rushed for 2,601 yards — the most in a college football season since Barry Sanders ran for 2,628 yards in 1988.
Along with his college statistics, Jeanty is also known for his rare blend of speed, strength and balance. In his 2025 scouting report on NFL.com, NFL scouts have deemed him the “ultimage yardage creator.”
“Omarion Hampton of the Los Angeles Chargers will be the best rookie performer in this year’s class,” Klug predicted. “Hampton got drafted into a better situation [than Jeanty], as the Chargers lean heavily on the run game and like to wear out defenses.”
Klug cited the Chargers’ status as a playoff contender and Hampton’s heavy workload at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill last year as factors that could contribute to his success. He also said Jayden Higgins is his favorite under-the-radar prospect, citing the linebacker’s strong senior season at Iowa State and his size, which Klug said will translate well to the NFL.
Still, Klug is hesitant to pick a rookie such as Hampton in the first round, saying that “the highest I’d be willing to draft him is around Pick 20,” due to the inherent risk that all rookies carry due to their inexperience at the professional level.
As shown in recent years, rookies in the NFL can either instantly become a star, in the case of Daniels, or start their careers struggling, in the case of Williams. This has led Klug to be skeptical of committing to a rookie in the early rounds of a draft.
