On July 13, former president and current Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump survived an assassination attempt while addressing a campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania. The shooter, later killed by Secret Service agents, was Thomas Matthew Crooks, a Pennsylvania native and a registered Republican voter. In addition to wounding Trump, Crooks was responsible for the death of one audience member and the injuries of two others.
A striking image of Trump was captured while he was being escorted off the stage by agents with his ear bloodied, his fist defiantly raised and his mouth chanting, “fight!” This emphatic display garnered much attention, with many of his supporters inspired by the show of strength. Democrats and Republicans alike have expressed that they feel the failed assassination attempt could help decisively tip the scales of the election in Trump’s favor. However, despite the initial outpouring of sympathy and admiration from many Americans, Trump has now found himself in what seems to be a worse position than the one he was in before the attempt, and any positive effect the assassination attempt had on his bid for election or on polls appears to have been short-lived.
Trump’s actions in the wake of the assassination attempt were met favorably and with solidarity from many citizens and public figures. X owner Elon Musk posted the photograph on his platform, and this image garnered over 3.4 million likes, placing it as the seventh most-liked post in the history of the platform. MLB player Taylor Walls and rapper Lil Pump are examples of relatively high-profile celebrities who have endorsed and expressed sympathy for Trump following the attempt. Trump has attempted to capitalize on the event by walking out to 50 Cent’s “Many Men” at the Republican National Convention, seemingly to market himself as a martyr.
Poll numbers initially reflected the generally favorable public response. Before the assassination attempt, Trump had already enjoyed a slight lead over former Democratic nominee Joe Biden in various national polls, with the percentage difference ranging from zero to four percent depending on the pollster. However, in the days following the attempt, his lead ballooned to as high as 11 percent, according to a poll by a research company, HarrisX.
Such a phenomenon is not entirely unprecedented. In 1981, then-president Ronald Reagan, also of the Republican Party, survived an assassination attempt. This was met with a jump in approval, from 60 percent on March 13, before the attempt, to 67 percent in April and 68 percent in May, according to Gallup Data. However, this increase was only temporary, as in June, it dropped back down to 59 percent, suggesting that while surviving an assassination attempt can boost a figure’s public perception, the effect does not last forever, even for someone as popular as Reagan was.
In Trump’s case, the advantage given to him by the improvement in public perception was even briefer, lasting mere weeks. Biden ultimately withdrew his candidacy on July 21, and Kamala Harris became the new prospective Democratic nominee. Initially, Trump maintained a lead in the polls. Still, it was nowhere near as large as it had been before Biden’s withdrawal from the race — Trump’s largest lead immediately following July 21 came from a YouGov poll at 3 percent. Harris managed to break even in several other polls, and it did not take long for her to begin taking leads from Trump. Since July 26, Harris has led in the majority of polls available in 538’s database, and since the beginning of August, she has broken even with or led Trump in all but one of them.
There are several conceivable explanations for Trump’s inability to gain a definitive advantage as of now. For example, several of Trump’s messaging strategies were developed specifically for a race against Biden, depicting him as weak or dishonest and criticizing his cognitive decline, something that is much harder to attack Harris for. Voter fatigue can also plausibly explain the success of Harris, who is a comparatively fresh face, whereas Trump has been the Republican nominee for the last three elections.
The fact remains that this presidential race looks to be an increasingly challenging one for Trump, and as the two candidates move forward, the attempted assassination will likely fade in relevance.
